As Rohrabacher Defends Trump, Russia, Re-Election Bid Looks Murky

For 15-term incumbent Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, the 2018 election might be his toughest bid yet. The California Republican narrowly trails Democratic challenger Harley Rouda in a Monmouth University poll of registered voters in California's 48th District released Tuesday. Rohrabacher is trailing Rouda in all three of the Monmouth poll’s likely voter models. In the full sample of potential voters — registered voters in the district who have cast ballots at least once since 2010 or are newly registered — Rouda leads the incumbent 46 percent to 43 percent, though that result is within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates the race Tilt Republican. Rouda has a strong lead among independents, a critical swing constituency in a district with more registered Republicans, with 49 percent saying they favor the challenger and 31 percent favoring Rohrabacher,  The 2018 election could see a shakeup in the district if Rouda can successfully turn out voters outside Rohrabacher’s reliable Newport Beach stronghold in a traditionally Republican district that Hillary Clinton carried by 2 points in 2016. “Rohrabacher came into this race with a target on his back that included some opposition within his own party,” Patrick Murray, the Monmouth poll’s director, said. “He retains strong support in GOP strongholds centered around Newport Beach, but voters in the rest of the district are willing to look at someone new.” Racial and education demographics could also play a key role in deciding the outcome in November. Rohrabacher led by 21 points, 55 percent to 34 percent, among whites without a college degree. College-educated whites are virtually split between the two candidates. Rouda holds a 27-point advantage, 57 percent to 30 percent, over Rohrabacher among black, Latino and Asian-American voters, who make up roughly a third of the registered voters in the district. “Minority voters tend to show less interest in the election at this point, so a key for Rouda is motivating this part of his base to turn out,” Murray said. Rohrabacher has been criticized for his support of Russia and its president Vladimir Putin and was quick to come to Trump’s defense after his much maligned news conference with the Russian president on Monday. Trump drew a moral equivalence between the U.S. and Russia at his news conference in Helsinki when he said he holds “both countries responsible” for strained relations between the U.S. and Russia. “I think that the United States has been foolish. I think we’ve all been foolish ... we’re all to blame,” Trump said. But Trump only said what Rohrabacher has been saying for years now: Russia gets an unfair shake from American lawmakers who have blundered interventionist efforts for decades across central America, Asia, and the Middle East, most recently in the Ukraine, Iraq, Libya, and Syria. “They found it in their interest to meddle in our elections,” Rohrabacher said of Russia in a heated interview Monday on Bloomberg. “But what the point is — we meddle in their elections. We meddle all over the world at a much higher rate than what Moscow does. And maybe it’s all wrong. But the fact is we helped overthrow the government of Ukraine.” Pollsters surveyed 402 voters in the district by telephone from July 11 to 15. Watch: Next to Putin, Trump Defies U.S. Intel on Russian Election Interference Get breaking news alerts and more from Roll Call on your iPhone or your Android.